Test report | Climate target: Drawing on the "emission buffer"

Researchers who deal with emissions forecasts are not to be envied. Let's look at the German Climate Protection Act. When it came into effect in 2021, annual _CO2 emissions stood at 729 million tons. By the target year of 2030, this figure is to be reduced to just 438 million. The total _CO2 budget, which is essentially managed by law over the ten years, amounts to just under 6.2 billion tons. When it comes to not exceeding such emission levels, people often look to climate policy , the expansion of renewables , or the growth of electric cars and heat pumps. But looking back and to the present, it is often not climate policy measures that have the greatest _CO2 impact, but rather entirely different effects.

In Germany's case, these included the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic after 2020, the war in Ukraine with its energy price crisis, and the weak growth that has persisted for at least three years. Due primarily to these special effects and crises, Germany built up an enormous _CO2 "buffer" by the end of 2024. It currently amounts to just over 110 million tons and will have shrunk to around 80 million tons by the end of 2030. This is the prediction of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) in its most recent forecast for 2030, presented in March – and this forecast was confirmed on Thursday by the Expert Council for Climate Issues responsible for the review.

The immediate consequence: The government is not required to implement any additional climate measures this year. However, the Climate Council emphasizes that it remains legally obligated to adopt a new, comprehensive climate protection program by March 2026. The government departments must even submit initial proposals by the end of September. The Climate Council's report states that the Federal Environment Agency's data "tend to underestimate" emissions up to 2030. However, the "degree of underestimation" is roughly equivalent to the size of the aforementioned "buffer," the experts write.

In other words, the reserve of 80 million tons is now large enough that the total budget of approximately 6.2 billion tons plus or minus zero can be met by 2030. This approval from the Council of Experts came as a surprise to many observers. Last year, the panel had determined that Germany would not meet its total _CO2 budget of 6.2 billion tons by 2030 and would thus miss the statutory climate target.

On Thursday, the expert council cited changing framework conditions as the main reason for the change of heart. This primarily refers to the economy, lower industrial production, and reduced freight transport. Economic development in 2024 was even weaker than predicted in the last forecast, explained council member Barbara Schlomann. Added to this was a mild winter. All of this caused the _CO2 "buffer" likely to remain for 2030 to grow from around 40 million tons to the current 80 million tons – Germany will maintain this reserve until 2030.

However, as things stand, the "buffer" does not protect Germany from failing to meet another climate target – namely the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent from 1990 to 2030. This only includes the amount of fossil fuels such as coal, gas, and oil burned in 2030 and the additional emissions generated. This is not a ten-year budget, but rather a one-year budget. According to current forecasts, emissions in 2030 will not reach the 438 million tons prescribed by climate law, but significantly exceed them. The _CO2 reduction will thus only reach 63 percent. This is also what the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) predicted.

"Ultimately, all other goals of the climate law will not be met."

Brigitte Knopf Expert Council on Climate Issues

The certified compliance with the overall budget is "no all-clear," emphasizes Brigitte Knopf. "Ultimately, all other targets of the Climate Act will not be met," explains the vice-chair of the expert council. The expert council explicitly includes the new situation in the land use sector in the list of known problems in the areas of buildings and transport. Forests, in particular, are no longer a _CO2 sink, but have become a _CO2 source, the Climate Council warns. Due to climate-related damage, they are now releasing more carbon dioxide than they can absorb. Instead of removing around 35 million tons of _CO2 from the atmosphere in 2045, forests will, based on current figures, release approximately this amount by then.

The fact that successful climate policy, as the Expert Council's figures suggest, has so far been primarily limited to switching fuels from fossil to renewables has serious long-term consequences. For the period up to 2040, emissions targets are at risk of being exceeded by 500 million tons. The climate target for 2040—an 88 percent reduction in _CO2 —will likely be missed by 8 percentage points, according to consistent figures from the Expert Council and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). The situation looks even worse for 2045: For the year in which Germany is supposed to be climate-neutral, current forecasts call for emissions of 250 million tons of _CO2 .

Brigitte Knopf has little hope for the coalition agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). She says it will provide "no significant positive" impetus for the 2030 climate target. Too much remains vague, or the unclear design of the Heating Act or the special fund makes it unclear how the measures will actually work. According to Knopf, the planned higher commuter allowance or the delayed implementation of the European Building Directive will definitely increase emissions.